The Morning Accouncements
The Lesson Plan
The 2026 ‘trends’ districts will publicly debate — and the 2 budget lines that will quietly decide everything
TL;DR: In 2026, districts will loudly debate AI ethics, screen time, and student mental health. But outcomes will be decided quietly by two line items most board meetings barely touch: instructional time and human support capacity.
Every January, the same ritual.
Thought leaders predict the “future of education.” Districts nod. Panels convene. Slide decks multiply. And this year’s EdSurge trend list is no exception: AI governance, data privacy, student wellbeing, workforce alignment, and the slow reshaping of teaching roles
All important. All very debatable.
But here’s the unlock most districts will miss:
The real fight won’t be over what tools to adopt —
It’ll be over what they quietly fund.
Public debate #1: AI rules & guardrails
Districts will argue about policies:
Can students use AI?
Should teachers?
Where’s the line between cheating and support?
Quiet budget decision:
👉 Do we fund AI as a bolt-on tool… or redesign instructional time around it?
AI without time reallocation just becomes faster homework — not better learning.
Public debate #2: Student mental health
More counselors. More surveys. More advisory blocks.
Quiet budget decision:
👉 Do we reduce cognitive overload inside the core day?
If schedules stay packed with low-value tasks, no amount of SEL programming fixes burnout.
Public debate #3: Teacher shortages & burnout
Districts will talk recruitment pipelines and retention bonuses.
Quiet budget decision:
👉 Do we invest in roles that absorb complexity so teachers can focus on instruction?
That means fewer tools, better workflows, and human support where judgment actually matters.
The 2 budget lines that will decide everything
Instructional Time Design
Not minutes. Architecture.
Who controls time? What gets automated? What gets human attention?Human Support Capacity
Not headcount inflation — leverage.
Who helps students when they’re stuck? Who helps teachers when systems break?
Here’s the aha moment:
Districts that treat AI as a policy problem will stall.
Districts that treat it as a time and labor reallocation problem will leap.
2026 won’t reward the loudest debates.
It’ll reward the quiet spreadsheets.
And the districts brave enough to change those lines?
They won’t need a trend forecast. They’ll be too busy compounding outcomes.
The BS Detector
AI in schools isn’t coming. It’s already here — and it entered through Pre-K
Everyone keeps arguing about when AI will hit classrooms.
Wrong question.
According to recent data, 1 in 3 Pre-K teachers are already using generative AI at school — mostly for lesson ideas, activities, and communication
That matters for two reasons:
Pre-K is culture, not curriculum.
This is where classroom norms are set. If AI is already a planning partner here, it’s not a “pilot” — it’s infrastructure.AI adoption isn’t top-down. It’s survival-driven.
No mandates. No district strategy decks. Just exhausted teachers quietly using tools that save time and reduce cognitive load.
The loudest debates are happening in high school boardrooms.
The real shift is happening on the carpet, during circle time.
By the time systems “decide” what to do about AI, teachers — starting with the youngest grades — already have.
Verdict:
If your AI strategy starts in Grade 9, you’re about a decade late.The